What is overconfidence bias?
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The Bias: What do most drivers believe about their skill?
That they're above average. Surveys find most drivers rate themselves above average, which can't all be true. Source: Wikipedia – Illusory superiority
Where It Shows Up: Where does it show up?
Traders who trade too often. Overconfident investors trade more and earn less. Source: Wikipedia – Overconfidence effect
The Fix: Fix?
Track your predictions and check your hit rate. Calibration comes from feedback. Source: Wikipedia – Overconfidence effect